China’s Impossible Trinity: The Structural Challenges to the by Chi Lo

By Chi Lo

This booklet highlights the tricky coverage selection that needs to finally be made in the course of China's structural reform in line with the speculation of the most unlikely Trinity, among alternate cost and fiscal coverage autonomy.

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Additional resources for China’s Impossible Trinity: The Structural Challenges to the “Chinese Dream”

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Measures such as allowing offshore RMB to be invested back in China as FDI, allowing Chinese firms to borrow offshore and the expansion of QFII and RQFII quotas, are hailed by the market as capital account opening steps to foster RMB internationalisation and deepen the CNH (offshore RMB) market. These are indeed essential steps, but they are not Opening a Can of Worms 25 conducive to deepening the internationalisation process and the CNH market unless accompanied by opening the capital account for capital outflows.

Reforms are better implemented in a stable economic environment. Nevertheless, it is also true that during good times with robust demand, policy-makers may lack the incentive to make changes. If the government is able to stand firm on pushing through structural reforms, the “visible hand” could manoeuvre policies against complacency to make reform effective. Granted, this is not an outcome with certainty. What is certain is that the market alone is not capable of accomplishing the reform task. The role of the government as an economic stabiliser alongside its role as a reform facilitator is crucial for making China’s transition successful to realise the “Chinese Dream”.

Judging from the increasing amount of social grievances in recent years, it is likely that the incentive to leave China would have increased further. 5 million) had already emigrated in 2013 while another 47 per cent were considering leaving China (Bain 2013), while other surveys found that more than half of the country’s millionaires were either considering or already in the process of emigrating (Hurun 2013). The respondents cited the lack of wealth protection, a poor education system, fear for health and environmental safety as the key reasons for leaving China.

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